Humans prefer cockiness to expertise
Interesting short article at NewScientist. Here's a snippet:
The research ... shows that we prefer advice from a confident source, even to the point that we are willing to forgive a poor track record. Moore argues that in competitive situations, this can drive those offering advice to increasingly exaggerate how sure they are. And it spells bad news for scientists who try to be honest about gaps in their knowledge.
...
Moore said that following the advice of the most confident person often makes sense, as there is evidence that precision and expertise do tend to go hand in hand. For example, people give a narrower range of answers when asked about subjects with which they are more familiarThere are times, however, when this link breaks down. With complex but politicised subjects such as global warming, for example, scientific experts who stress uncertainties lose out to activists or lobbyists with a more emphatic message.
I wonder if this also applies to the growth of religions. It seems that religions whose members are "most sure of" their conclusions are prone to grow faster, even if they have a shaky track record. I'm thinking of the JWs for example, who have consistently failed to predict the material second coming of Christ (1914, 1915, 1918, 1925, 1975). There are other religions that I could just as well use an example, but I will refrain. The point is that this line of research seems to be on to something--as a general human principle we tend to believe in confidence more than expertise.
