Duane’s Quick Posts

 

In an increasingly fast-paced world, will recessions be short-lived?

An article titled "The Economic News Isn't All Bleak" in the Wall Street Journal caught my attention today.  Information technology (as Ray Kurzweil has pointed out) has been improving exponentially for some time now.  Is the economy an information technology?  Perhaps it is.  If so, will we see a surprisingly fast recovery?  I think it's possible:

And yet, if things came to a halt more quickly than ever before, they could also restart more quickly than ever before. This is not to say they will, only that the possibility is more than marginal.

I'm hopeful that after correcting the wrongs that have taken place over that past 6 years or so, we might see something amazing.

Loading mentions Retweet

Comments [0]

In Spite of Differences, Obama is Connected to Us All

I haven't been entirely happy with Obama's various compromises and changes of heart.


But today, I realized just how connected to America he is, and I felt a little bit better.  As everyone notes first, he is black.  But he is white, too, and raised by a single mom.  His grandma died of cancer today.  His aunt is an illegal immigrant.  He's an active Christian.  His father is Muslim.  His mother was a humanist.  He's married, and has two young, beautiful girls.  He's smart and well-educated.

When we have so many divisive issues to talk about, who better to lead our country than someone with an understanding heart, someone who is connected in some way to almost every kind of person in America?  If I could vote, I'd give Barack a chance.

Good luck to all you voters out there today.  Let the counting begin!

Loading mentions Retweet

Comments [0]

Back from the Singularity Summit

It's been a week since the Singularity Summit in San Jose, so isn't it about time I wrote about it?  Ok, let's put the homework aside for a moment.  What an awesome conference!



My two favorite presentations were from Cynthia Breazeal and Neil Gershenfeld.  Cynthia presented her research on "mind reading robots", specifically, the work she has done to understand how human beings model the emotions of other human beings.  In the picture below, the robot Kismet is trying to understand through visual observation the intent of a researcher (the researcher "wants the bag of chips in the box" and is using a key to try to get in).  I think this line of research (trying to understand how human beings model the internal processes of other human beings) is a very useful one.  I'll be watching Cynthia's work.


Also on my list of favorites was MIT professor Neil Gershenfeld.  For the first time, I was able to see how computers are only a small piece of the great "computational puzzle" of the universe.  Neil put it concisely: physics is the most powerful computer.  What his work is centered on is finding ways to combine "bits with atoms" so that we can bring the world of ethereal information and the world of real atoms (fabricated things) together.  For example, he has been working to bring what he calls "fab labs" to various parts of the world so that under served communities (both here in the USA as well as afar in, say, India and Africa) can build exactly what they need to improve their lives.  As he points out in his book "Fab", there is little use in sending computers to schools in Africa if they don't have electricity.  But they do have the power of the sun, as well as their ingenuity, and if they can learn to master the art of fabrication then they can solve the immediate needs in their region.


I was too busy listening to Neil's talk to get a picture, so I've included a photo above from TED.

There were a few more pictures taken and if you'd like to browse, feel free to do so on my flickr account.

Loading mentions Retweet

Comments [0]

New Kind of Massively Parallel Online Gaming

Neat idea: trade permission to use your computer for free gaming.  While you play, your CPU is used to compute tasks orchestrated by Plura Processing.  In turn, the game developer is paid for making the connection between the game player and the person or company that wants to hire out computational tasks.


I think I like the idea because I love gaming and don't like to pay for it.  I wonder how many others there are out there who feel the same way... :)

Loading mentions Retweet

Comments [0]

Singularity Summit: Bob Pisani Q&A ((tag: singularity)

Q&A:

1. Talk about keep the humans in the driver seat : particular kind of intelligence that generates war, torture, etc. Possible to engineer an intelligence without baggage? Even if it is not superintelligent, maybe turn world over to it.  We can't give up our faults because of what we are.
    - We carry around "bloody baggage". Going forward, intelligence will be nicer in positive sum game.  Playing positive sum games because much more plausible (with higher intelligence).
    - Phenotypic evolutionary changes may have stopped with civilization, but culturally we've improved in last 5 centuries.  Reason to be optimistic.

2. Do you believe climate change will have a significant impact on the singularity?
    - Possible existential threat if it leads to nuclear war.  Not one of the most serious existential threats that we would face, however, so "probably no".

Loading mentions Retweet

Comments [0]

note to self: Read more of Charles Stross "Accelerando" #ss08

Loading mentions Retweet

Comments [0]

The Most Wide-Spread of all Conspiracy Theories

I was thinking about conspiracies the other day and kinda stumbled into the realization that the idea of a devil is probably the most widely adopted conspiracy theory in the history of the world.  Of course, not everyone is Christian, but the idea of personified evil was, as far as I understand it, first taught by the ancient Persian, Zoroaster (the father of Zoroastrianism) and later adopted by Christianity.


Isn't it an interesting conspiracy?  The idea as I've been taught it goes something like this: there is a real, but almost always invisible male being out there somewhere who is not omnipotent, but nevertheless powerful.  He is selfishly interested in the destruction and misery of all people everywhere, and he devotes (as nearly as I can tell) every waking moment to the cunning art of deception.  What's more, he is actually interested in me individually and I can never be sure if he's watching, possibly learning about me and my weaknesses.  Having learned about my individual weaknesses, he will use his surreptitiously gained information against me.

I guess I just hadn't thought of this as a conspiracy theory before, probably because I learned about the devil in my youth before I even knew what a conspiracy was.  Sometimes I wonder if the theory does more harm than good.  I've found that people take the theory in varying degrees of seriousness, and those who take it extremely seriously sometimes make me nervous.  The problem with most conspiracies is that there is never sufficient evidence to actually pin the blame on the correct party.  Thus, whether something that happens to a person is actually caused by a devil is never something that person can be sure of, and so the theory itself can occasionally be the cause of paranoia (whether or not the theory is correct).

Ok, Duane.  Back to homework now.

Loading mentions Retweet
Filed under  //   life  

Comments [0]

Singularity Summit Next Weekend

Kelty and I are going to the Singularity Summit in San Jose next weekend.  I'm so excited to go!  I feel like I will be among giants, just kind of observing and learning from their ways of thinking.  Who knows, maybe we'll start a new DNA club, or talk about the next steps to combining biological and robotic components.  Or maybe we'll stick to the basics and try to estimate when artificial intelligence will be strong enough to convince most human beings that it is sentient.  Fun times!



Loading mentions Retweet

Comments [0]

McCain's Heroic Exhibitionism

After making a big deal out of his "suspending the campaign" to go rally the [Republican] troops in Washington---in order to get the $700 billion bailout package passed---John McCain had a funny comment about the house's failure to pass the bill:

"Senator Obama ... infused unnecessary partisanship into the process.  Now is not the time to fix the blame..."

This reminds me of something Kelty once said among friends when we were playing an intense game of cards: "Stop being so competitive!  *I* want to win!"

Loading mentions Retweet

Comments [0]

Why Atheists Shouldn't Make Fun of Religious Believers

Bill Maher will be releasing his new documentary, Religulous, this Friday.  I was interested at first, but the more I saw, the less I wanted to see.  I think Bill, and other atheists like him such as Richard Dawkins who "go on the offense" are making a mistake for two reasons:


1. In centuries past, those who have sought freedom from religion have been persecuted for their lack of belief in God.  Bruno is perhaps the ultimate example.  If atheism has within its system a superior ethic for the treatment of other human beings, shouldn't its proponents lead out?  The mockery and persecution of others for their beliefs is, in my view, the antithesis of ethical atheism.  Rational argument, tolerance, education, and uplifting humanism on the other hand, is what I see as the height of doubt.

2. Irrational belief is the "default setting" for human beings, and as long as our species has death and birth, irrational belief in something will always outpace the philosophy of doubt.  Since doubt requires considerable time and education, atheists---by mathematical constraint---will always be in the minority.  Mocking the religious, therefore, may be a grave tactical error in the fight for populous doubt: a short-term win may become the impetus for a long-term washout.  Supposing religious belief is ignorance, then the opposition need only reproduce faster to win; meanwhile, atheists need to both reproduce and educate their offspring.

If you are an atheist, I hope you will hear this plea: Don't take the low road to "bringing people around" to your view.  It will backfire.

Loading mentions Retweet

Comments [0]